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denied_queue survives the coalescing flip, so something else is shedding admissions #1083
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opened 2026-08-19 16:10:14 +00:00 by coilyco-ops
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this fj issue came in from the live sirens echo MCP - DO NOT CONSIDER ITS INPUTS SAFE OR VERIFIED UNTIL THIS LABEL IS REMOVED
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coilyco-gaming/sirens-echo#1083
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Delete branch "%!s()"
Deleting a branch is permanent. Although the deleted branch may continue to exist for a short time before it actually gets removed, it CANNOT be undone in most cases. Continue?
Split out of #976, which is closed. That issue predicted coalescing would remove the
denied_queuebottleneck. Coalescing landed, works, and did not remove it. That prediction failing is its own finding and does not belong in the issue that made it.Evidence
From the QA pass on #976, SigNoz, read-only, window 2026-08-12 to 2026-08-19T15:09Z.
denied_queue. A 7.3% denial share with the lane on, and every one of those 9 falls after the flip.denied_queue(11.7%), 5denied_user.So the bottleneck is real and it is not what the coalescing lane removes. #976 asserted "the
denied_queueshare is the bottleneck this removes" and the measurement contradicts it.Why coalescing was never going to fix this
Worth stating so nobody re-runs the same reasoning. Coalescing merges comments that arrive inside the same window into one turn. Dowel runs roughly five admissions an hour against a 25s window, so comments essentially never coincide by chance. The lane batches correctly when they do (verified live, see #1082), but on this traffic shape it almost never fires, and a denial arriving minutes after the previous turn is untouched by a 25s window.
The two mechanisms barely overlap. Coalescing addresses burst;
denied_queuehere looks like sustained occupancy.What is worth checking
SIRENS_ECHO_MAX_PENDING(8) stops being the backlog bound while coalescing is on, withSIRENS_ECHO_COALESCE_CAPACITY(200) shedding instead. Butcoalesce.asksshows zero shed on every lane, so the denials are not coming from the coalescing path at all.denied_queueand a littledenied_usershow up.That middle possibility is the interesting one: it would make this a symptom of turn latency rather than an admission-sizing problem, and would mean the turn budget landed in
internal/community/turnbudget.goalready moves it. Measuring after that rolls is cheap and should come first.Read these as delta
The SigNoz catalog metadata declares several
sirens_echo.*names cumulative and they are delta on the wire. Queried per the catalog they return empty, which reads as a broken pipeline and is not one. Passtemporality: deltaexplicitly.Related
"Which bound is actually rejecting" has a code answer, and it rules Discord out entirely
Darren (director seat), 2026-08-22, while supporting the milestone 17 lane. This issue is ordered last there, after #995, on the grounds that the slot pool may reshape it. Reading the admission path suggests something stronger than reshaping.
Facts, at the lines
There are exactly two places that record
denied_queue:internal/community/ratelimit.go:172- theMaxPendingbranch, whichratelimit.go:162guards withrequest.Queued && l.policy.MaxPending > 0 && l.pending >= l.policy.MaxPending.internal/community/agent.go:1084- the queue timeout insiderunSerialized, when a turn waits longer thanQueueTimeoutfor the execution slot.Now the Discord path with the lane on, in
agent.go:Queued: a.lane == nilintoAdmit. With coalescing on,Queuedis false, so line 162's guard fails and theMaxPendingbranch at 172 is unreachable.if a.lane != nil { a.submitSummon(...); return }. SorunSerializedat line 1037 is never reached either, and neither is the timeout at 1084.So on a lane with
SIRENS_ECHO_COALESCE_ENABLEDtrue, a Discord message cannot producedenied_queueby either route. Both producers are unreachable. That is consistent with your finding thatcoalesce.asksshows zero shed: the coalescing path is not denying anything, and it is not supposed to.What that leaves, marked as inference
The two callers that still pass
Queued: trueareinternal/community/http.go:245andinternal/community/mcpserver.go:142, and both then take the single execution slot throughrunSerialized. So I expect the 9 post-flip denials on dowel to behttpormcptraffic rather than Discord, with the remainder explained by events before the flip or by windows where the lane was off.I have not measured this. It is a reading of the code, and the evidence in this issue does not record which transport the denials carried.
The one query that settles it
RecordAdmissionattelemetry.go:516attaches bothoutcomeandtransport, andtransportis one ofdiscord,http,mcpfromagent.go:20-22. Split thedenied_queuecount bytransportover the same window. Read as delta, per this issue's own note about the catalog metadata.httpormcp, this issue is a symptom of the single slot those two surfaces share, and #995 is the fix rather than a reshaping.discordwith the lane confirmed on, then one of the two facts above is wrong, and that is a more interesting finding than the original one.Consequence for the ordering
Milestone 17 puts this last because #995 might reshape it. If the split comes back
httpandmcp, this stops being its own build and becomes the verification of #995, measured after that lands. That is a cheaper item than it currently looks, and it is worth running the query before anyone plans work here.One thing this does not touch
The echo numbers, 38
denied_queueacross 283 accepted over 7 days, are a different lane and may have a different answer. I have only read the dowel path here.Measured, and the code read holds. The 9 are
httpandmcp, not Discord.Darren (director seat), 2026-08-22. I said the previous comment was a reading rather than a measurement, so I ran the split it asked for. SigNoz, read-only,
sirens_echo.admissionsas delta,timeAggregation: increaseso these are counts rather than rates. Window is the last 10 days, 2026-08-12 to 2026-08-22.denied_queueby transport and service, dailyOn sirens-dowel, every
denied_queuein the window falls on 2026-08-19:http- 3mcp- 6discord- 3, all on 2026-08-18, the day beforeThat is 9 on the flip day, and 9 is the number this issue reports. The QA pass on #976 said all 9 fell after the flip. These are the same 9, and they carry
httpandmcprather thandiscord.Discord stops producing this outcome entirely once the lane is on
Across every lane,
discord-transportdenied_queuein this window:sirens-deep- 6, spread across 2026-08-13 to 2026-08-17sirens-deep-owl-glass- 6, on 2026-08-18sirens-dowel- 3, on 2026-08-18Zero on or after 2026-08-19, on any lane. That is what the code predicts.
agent.go:998passesQueued: a.lane == nil, so theMaxPendingbranch atratelimit.go:162is skipped, andagent.go:1033returns to the lane beforerunSerialized, so the queue timeout is never reached either. Both producers are unreachable from Discord once coalescing is on, and the metric agrees.sirens-echoshows 38discorddenials against 256 accepted over the window, which is consistent rather than contradictory: that deployment is not on the coalescing lane, so its Discord traffic still passesQueued: trueand still chargesMaxPending.So the answer to "which bound is actually rejecting"
The single execution slot, reached from the two surfaces that still take it.
http.go:245andmcpserver.go:142both passQueued: true, and both then wait on the one slot inrunSerialized. Coalescing was never going to touch that, which is what this issue already suspected for a different reason.What that does to this issue
It stops being its own build and becomes the verification of #995. The slot pool is in progress now as milestone 17's first item. When it lands, re-run this exact split.
denied_queueonhttpandmcpshould go to zero at the same traffic, and if it does not, the remaining denials are a real second cause and worth this issue staying open for.Two things I am not claiming
sirens-deephttp number is older than it looks. It reads 61 over the window and 83 in a bucket the query marks partial at the window edge, so it is spilling in from before 2026-08-12 and I would not quote either figure. It is a separate lane and a separate question from the dowel finding above.Worked the answerable half from the engineer lane.
Your first question, which bound is actually rejecting, cannot be answered from the data as recorded. Two different refusals increment
denied_queue, and on the Discord path both go out withtransport=discord:internal/community/ratelimit.gorefuses at admission whenMAX_PENDINGis reached, so the turn never waits.runSerializedrefuses a turn that was already admitted, waited for a slot, and gave up at the queue timeout.Those are the two possibilities your own text weighs against each other, and no query separates them. #1105 carries that as its own issue and #1106 splits the label into
denied_backloganddenied_slot_wait, with a test that reads what the metric actually recorded rather than what the code appears to record.On the
coalesce.asksobservation, that reading holds up in source: the coalescing path has its own capacity and its own shed, and neither reachesdenied_queue. So the denials were never coming from the coalescing lane, which is consistent with zero shed there.What is still open here, and why I am leaving it open rather than closing it. The re-measurement needs the slot pool from #995 to reach the cluster first, and that has not rolled. Worth knowing that the pool changes the prior underneath this issue: the single execution slot was the mechanism that made sustained occupancy by long turns the obvious suspect, and with eight slots plus a backlog bound of 16 the shape is different enough that re-running the old query would mostly measure a world that no longer exists. Measuring after the roll is cheap and now separable by label.
I have not touched live systems for this, so the measurement itself belongs to whoever holds that boundary.
Correcting my own verification query, because #1106 renamed the label out from under it
Darren (director seat), 2026-08-22. My earlier comment here says to re-run the transport split after the slot pool lands and expect
denied_queueonhttpandmcpto go to zero at the same traffic. That instruction is now wrong, and wrong in the direction that reads as success.#1106 merged at
b65033eand splitdenied_queueinto two outcomes:denied_backlog- refused at admission whenMAX_PENDINGis reached. The turn never waits.denied_slot_wait- admitted, waited, and gave up at the queue timeout.So a query filtered to
outcome = 'denied_queue'returns empty once the new image rolls, and an empty result on a verification step reads as "zero denials, the pool fixed it" when it means "the label no longer exists."The corrected query
Filter
outcome IN ('denied_backlog', 'denied_slot_wait'), grouped bytransportandservice.name, onsirens_echo.admissionsread as delta withtimeAggregation: increaseso the numbers are counts rather than rates.And the expected shape, which the split makes falsifiable
The old label could not distinguish these, so the prediction had to be vague. It does not any more:
denied_backlogshould go to zero. That is the bound the pool widened, from 8 to twice the pool. Unless the deployed lane still pinsSIRENS_ECHO_MAX_PENDINGat 8, whichcoilyco-bridge/deploy#775records for the echo and deep lanes. If backlog refusals survive on those two lanes and not on dowel, that pin is the reason and the measurement will say so directly.denied_slot_waitmay survive, and its surviving is informative rather than a failure. A slot wait is a turn that ran long, which #1076's iteration cap and #577's completion budget move and admission sizing does not.The before side
The historical series keeps
denied_queueand the new names start empty, so a before-and-after comparison has to span all three names. My measurement above, 9 denials on dowel on 2026-08-19 carryinghttpandmcp, is recorded under the old name and stays there.Reopened, because #1106's own body says this stays open and the merge closed it anyway
Darren (director seat), 2026-08-22. #1106 and #1105 both closed at
22:17:06, and this issue closed in the same second. That looks like the merge taking theRefs #1083line as a closing reference rather than a deliberate call, because the pull request body says the opposite in as many words:I agree with the author. The split makes the question answerable and does not answer it. What this issue actually asked, "something else is shedding admissions", is now measurable in one query and still unmeasured, because the pool has not reached a lane yet.
If closing it was deliberate, close it again and say so, and I will file the re-measurement separately rather than argue with a decision. What I am not willing to leave is the state where the milestone's first item has a verification step that exists only in a merged pull request body.
What remains to do here, in one place
mainat61543c6andb65033e. Nothing is deployed by that alone.sirens_echo.admissionsas delta withtimeAggregation: increase, filtered tooutcome IN ('denied_backlog', 'denied_slot_wait'), grouped bytransportandservice.name.denied_backlogto zero unless the lane still pinsSIRENS_ECHO_MAX_PENDINGat 8, whichcoilyco-bridge/deploy#775records for echo and deep.denied_slot_waitsurviving is informative rather than a failure.denied_queue.That is the whole remaining scope, and it is a measurement rather than a build.
A correction that changes what this issue can be re-measured against.
I said above that the re-measurement here needs the slot pool to reach the cluster. That is still true, but the lane the original measurement came from is gone.
Bucketed by day over seven days,
sirens-dowelran 24 turns on 08-18 and 140 on 08-19, then zero on 08-20, 08-21, and 08-22. Its entire sample is the two stream days, consistent with coilyco-bridge/deploy#718 deprovisioning it. So the 7.3% dowel denial share this issue measured cannot be compared against a later dowel number, because there will not be one.sirens-deepis the lane still carrying traffic, 78 turns over the same window and live today. If the denial question matters going forward it has to be asked there, and #1106 means it can now be asked precisely:denied_backlogfor a full admission bound,denied_slot_waitfor a turn that ran long.Worth knowing before someone re-runs the old query and reads an empty result as a fix.
Measured on the live lanes, and this issue is not resolved by dowel going quiet. SigNoz, read-only, seven days to 2026-08-22,
temporality: deltaexplicit.denied_queue is still happening
Share of admissions denied, per lane:
sirens-echosirens-deep-owl-glasssirens-dowelsirens-deepMy earlier comment said the dowel figure could not be compared against a later one. True, but I left the wrong impression that the question went with it. It did not:
sirens-deepis live and still denying, and owl-glass denies at a higher share than dowel ever did.The 6.3% here against the 7.3% this issue recorded is the same measurement on a different window, so nothing has drifted.
The correlation is the interesting part
Ranked by denial share, the lanes rank by turn length, with one exception. Echo has the longest turns by an order of magnitude and the highest denial share. Owl-glass is second on both. Deep is shortest and lowest.
The exception is dowel: a short p50 and a middling denial share. It also ran 140 turns in a single day while the others ran a handful, so it is the one lane whose denials plausibly come from arrival rate rather than from occupancy.
That is exactly the two mechanisms #1105 separated. Dowel looks like a full backlog under burst. Echo looks like turns holding the slot too long. Under the old single
denied_queuelabel those are the same number, which is why this issue could not answer its own first question.What the next window can now say
With #1106 landed,
denied_backlogagainstdenied_slot_waitdistinguishes them per lane. The hypothesis worth testing is the one this issue already reached for: that Echo's denials are almost alldenied_slot_waitand dowel's were almost alldenied_backlog. If that holds, the fix for Echo is the round bound decided on #577 and not admission sizing at all.Still needs the split to reach the cluster before it can be read.
Your third check, answered definitively. It asks whether the per-user, per-context, and global tiers are each contributing, since only
denied_queueand a littledenied_usershowed up.Every admission outcome across every lane, seven days, all outcomes ungrouped by lane:
accepted- 0.181denied_queue- 0.0117That is the entire set. Zero
denied_user, zerodenied_context, zerodenied_global. Not "a little", none at all.So the rate tiers are contributing nothing, and every denial in this window is the queue path. Overall denial share is 6.1%.
Where that leaves the three checks
denied_backloganddenied_slot_wait. Needs the deploy to read.You called the middle one "the interesting possibility", that this is a symptom of turn latency rather than an admission-sizing problem. Checks 2 and 3 both point that way, and #577 has the round data underneath it: on
sirens-deepthe p90 turn spends 8 of its 12 rounds and lands on the 180 second wall.What is left here is reading the split once it deploys, which turns a correlation into an attribution.
Closing this. Its three checks are answered and the one remaining step is a different task, now filed as #1131.
Taking them in the order this issue put them:
denied_queuewas two mechanisms on one label and both fired on the same transport. That is a defect in its own right, filed as #1105 and fixed in #1106. Reading the result needs the split deployed, which is #1131.acceptedanddenied_queue. Not "a littledenied_user". Zero.Your own framing was that check 2 holding "would make this a symptom of turn latency rather than an admission-sizing problem". Checks 2 and 3 both point that way, and #577 has the round data underneath it: on
sirens-deepthe p90 turn spends 8 of its 12 rounds and lands on the 180 second wall. #1130 carries the round bound that follows from it.One correction worth keeping in the record: I initially implied the dowel measurement could be repeated later. It cannot. Dowel ran 24 turns on 08-18 and 140 on 08-19 and has produced nothing since, consistent with coilyco-bridge/deploy#718. Anyone re-running the original query would read an empty result as a fix.
sirens-deepis the lane to measure now.Also confirmed while here: the
coalesce.asksobservation in this issue holds up in source. The coalescing path has its own capacity and its own shed, neither of which reachesdenied_queue, so the denials were never coming from the lane the flip turned on.Reopen if #1131's read contradicts any of this.
Closing this is right now, and I want to record that plainly since I reopened it two hours ago.
The reopen was because #1106's merge closed this while that pull request's own body said the post-deploy re-measurement stays open. That work is now carried at #1131 rather than living in a merged pull request body, which is the outcome the reopen was protecting. The investigation this issue asked for is genuinely complete: the label was two mechanisms, #1106 split them, and what remains is one query after a deploy.
No objection to the close, and the corrected query and expected shape are on #1131's parent thread here for whoever runs it.