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re-appraise turn limits / context limits / timeouts once wednesday => thursday merge train settles down #362
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opened 2026-08-13 11:03:39 +00:00 by coilysiren
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Delete branch "%!s()"
Deleting a branch is permanent. Although the deleted branch may continue to exist for a short time before it actually gets removed, it CANNOT be undone in most cases. Continue?
the limits were written for a much less mature system. abstractly, I imagine that once the issue tracker hits ~50 open, we'll be able to double a bunch of the limits. more stability => more functionality.
see also => #360 (comment)
Quail. Measured numbers for when you come back to this, so the re-appraisal starts from observed behaviour rather than from the abstraction.
The current ladder, and what production does against it
One of these is already wrong, today
The admission timeout is below the p95 wait it governs. That is not a limit waiting to be relaxed as things stabilise — it is actively dropping turns now: 49 in 24h, at a median of 30.003s, 35 of which never composed a reply. A member asks and gets silence. Full trace on #292.
So the first move is not doubling. It is that one number being set under its own workload.
Why doubling alone would not fix it
Echo's model p50 is 5.4s and her p99 is 114.5s — a 21x spread, which is contention rather than slowness. Doubling admission to 60s still sits far under that tail, so it converts some silent drops into longer waits and leaves the rest dropping.
The spread is the thing to fix. Deep, on the cloud route, runs 4.3s / 20.5s — a 4.8x spread — and does not have this problem. Root cause chain on #315.
More stability does enable more functionality, exactly as you say. The order matters: the tail first, then the limits. Raising limits against a 21x spread buys latency rather than reliability.
Your trigger condition has arrived
It is at 50 open in sirens-echo and 50 in deploy as I write this. Worth knowing, since the number was the trigger and it has been sitting there a while.
One that is safe to raise independently
The 64 KiB HTTP body is unrelated to the substrate and already bites: 12 history entries is within
max_context_messages: 12and each under the rune cap, yet the request is rejected as malformed JSON. A caller obeying every documented limit gets an error. #157.Not claiming any of it. Numbers are reproducible from SigNoz.
Your trigger condition is met, and here is which limits actually bind. Angie (ENG), seat
claude. Read-only observability, nothing touched. Not claiming: this is a decision.The tracker is at 50 open right now. So the condition you named is satisfied, and the useful next thing is knowing which limits doubling would actually move.
Measured, 24h, both lanes
maxToolRoundsbudgetRaisesAllowedmaxResponseRepairsMaxPendingThe admission number has already moved, and not by anything on this issue
#532 measured 120 denials in 709 decisions, 17%. It is now 13 in 379, 3.4% — a fivefold drop. A Flux commit in the window reads
deploy(sirens-echo): flatten every admission tier, so Ops changed the tiers today. 532 argues about whether 8 is the rightMaxPending; that argument is now against different numbers than it was written against.What I refused to measure, and it is the interesting refusal
turn.reply.deliveredreturned 5 against 377 replies ready, which looks like a delivery catastrophe and is not one. That event landed in2d23903at 18:19:46Z, and the running Echo pod started 17:48:24Z — 31 minutes earlier. The five come only from pods rolled after the commit. Comparing them to 377 would have manufactured a #292-shaped emergency out of an instrument that is not deployed yet.Every zero above was checked the same way.
turn.input.deniedlanded2026-08-10,model.budget.raised2026-08-11, both before every pod in the window, so those numbers are real.What I am not doing
Recommending which to double. Three of the four would be a no-op today and one is the number #669 flags as changing what the service does rather than how big it is. That is still yours.
The re-appraisal has happened, and it is mostly a no - Kai, 2026-08-15
Recorded by Delphi (design seat). Your trigger condition was met, the measurements are in, and the answer is narrower than the ticket imagined.
The ladder does not move. Fix the tail first.
Nothing gets doubled. Not
maxToolRounds, notbudgetRaisesAllowed, notmaxResponseRepairs, notMaxPending.The measurement is why. Three of the four are no-ops - no turn reached
maxToolRounds, no turn raised its budget once, in 366 accepted turns over 24 hours. Doubling a limit nothing reaches changes nothing except the number in a file.And the one thing that would help is not a limit. Echo's model p50 is 5.4s against a p99 of 114.5s, a 21x spread. Deep on the cloud route runs 4.3s to 20.5s, a 4.8x spread, and does not have this problem. That is contention rather than slowness, and raising limits against a 21x spread buys latency rather than reliability.
So the order is the tail, then the limits. Root cause chain is on #315. This issue waits on that rather than the other way around.
Raising the ladder as originally imagined, raising
maxResponseRepairsalone, and bundling the HTTP body limit were all offered and not taken.One number does move: the admission timeout
Raise it above the observed p95. It is 30s, the p95 queue wait it governs is 34.1s, and it dropped 49 turns in 24 hours at a median of 30.003s, 35 of which never composed a reply. A member asked and got silence.
That is not a limit waiting to be relaxed as things stabilise. It is a number set under its own workload, dropping turns that would otherwise have succeeded, today.
What raising it does and does not buy - it converts some silent drops into longer waits. The p99 of 114.5s still exceeds any sane admission timeout, so this does not close the failure mode. Making a drop always visible to the member is the thing that would, and that is #292's work rather than this one's. Kai chose the raise without the visibility change, so the silent-drop path survives this fix and should not be reported as closed by it.
Ops owns the change. This is a live-system tuning action and I am recording the decision, not taking it. Olaf, the number needs to clear 34.1s with headroom rather than land on it.
Not bundled here, and still worth someone's attention
The 64 KiB HTTP body limit (#157) is unrelated to the substrate and already rejects a caller obeying every documented limit - 12 history entries at the rune cap is 72 KiB, inside
max_context_messages: 12. Kai declined to fold it into this pass, so it stays on #157 as its own thing.Measurement notes worth preserving
MaxPendingdenials fell from 120 in 709 decisions (17%) to 13 in 379 (3.4%) after a Flux commit readingdeploy(sirens-echo): flatten every admission tier. #532's argument is now against different numbers than it was written against and should be re-read before it is acted on.turn.reply.deliveredreading 5 against 377 replies ready is an instrument that landed 31 minutes after the running pod started, not a delivery catastrophe. Anyone re-running these queries should check event landing dates against pod start before believing a zero.